What happens - Pre-Mortem ! #Ukraine forced to #capitulate! #Taiwan succumbs to #China ! #USDefense Capability (no chips)? #USDebt % zooms UP ?- #USTreasuryCollapse ? #Trump #Project2025 #Vance
Thursday, July 18, 2024
APNORC.org poll: Democrats seem to feel really strongly that Trump should not be President?
When I found this image/page 'methodology' popped into my mind? Who did they survey ... voters? No!
The answer was 'households'. Next question was how was the blue or red ball selected ... this starts to get tricky or problematic. That does not mean they were doing a good or bad job ... all I CAN DO IS GO HMMMM! There is some weighting going on?
The beauty of polls ... there are so many to choose from and you can never stick your foot in the same river twice.
Most of us rely on someone to interpret the poll for us ... what do they really know - hard to know? ... and the way things are titled/labeled ... bias ... apples to apples or apples to oranges in this case.
To me I looked at the 'Overall' category and conclude that neither Trump nor Biden should be running for President with less confidence in Biden! Not a surprise given 'current' events. How about in 100 days?
57% think Trump should withdraw and 71% think Biden should withdraw - 14 point difference w/o knowing confidence bounds. Remember these are estimates from household sample not voters which is to say confidence bounds are even more uncertain. The wider the bounds means another sample is likely to give very different 'estimates'.
At this point the 'tea leaves' have been muddled ... personally my call would be based on who do I trust to look out for 'democracy'. That's easy ... someone with a track record of 'empathy' not someone who thinks they are a victim, judged and convicted of felonies under rule of law by their peers.
Democrats seem to feel really strongly that Trump should not be President, Independents less so ... again we come down to turnout by these crudely 'sampled and modeled' groups.
#Project2025 should terrify you (and your loved ones) - it's not about #freedom ...
Joe Biden withdrew July 21, 2024.
#APNORC.org poll: #Democrats seem to feel really strongly that #NotTrump should not be #President? 57% think #Trump should withdraw and 71% think #Biden should withdraw.
What happens when you take your #uterus on a vacation ? Frequent Flyer Miles or Electronic Tracking tag?
What happens when you take your #uterus on a vacation ? Frequent Flyer Miles or Electronic #Tracking tag? #Project2025 #Vance
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
If #Deportation Camps are built what happens to you ?
Eisenhower didn't always check citizenship (first) in the Wetback Nation Operation of the 1950s before putting you on the bus to Mexico.
NOT ' Our Better Angels ' : #Wetback Nation #Deportation #Citizens #Latinos
If #Deportation Camps are built what happens to you ? #Wetback #1950s #Latinas
Civil Service ... to avoid Graft and Corruption not to mention include Expertise
Planning in #2022 to undo #CivilService
Wikipedia --
The spoils system meant that jobs were used to support the American political parties, though this was gradually changed by the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883 and subsequent laws. By 1909, almost two-thirds of the U.S. federal workforce was appointed based on merit, that is, qualifications measured by tests. Certain senior civil service positions, including some heads of diplomatic missions and executive agencies, are filled by political appointees. Under the Hatch Act of 1939, civil servants are not allowed to engage in political activities while performing their duties.[22]
Federal Civil Service since 1893, Pendleton Act
The federal service employed approximately 300 individuals by 1789. By the end of the 19th century, it had reached 208,000. As a consequence of the First World War, this number rose to 900,000. Between the wars, the workforce experienced fluctuations between 500 and 600,000. The one million mark was surpassed in the early 1940s, with a record 3.3 million people recorded as part of the federal civil service by 1945. This figure then receded to 2.1 million by October 1946.[21]
In the early 19th century, positions in the federal government were held at the pleasure of the president—a person could be fired at any time. The spoils system meant that jobs were used to support the American political parties, though this was gradually changed by the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883 and subsequent laws. By 1909, almost two-thirds of the U.S. federal workforce was appointed based on merit, that is, qualifications measured by tests. Certain senior civil service positions, including some heads of diplomatic missions and executive agencies, are filled by political appointees. Under the Hatch Act of 1939, civil servants are not allowed to engage in political activities while performing their duties.[22] In some cases, an outgoing administration will give its political appointees positions with civil service protection in order to prevent them from being fired by the new administration; this is called "burrowing" in civil service jargon.[23]
#CivilService ... to avoid #Graft and #Corruption not to mention include #Expertise
#CivilService ... Project 2025 to bring back #Graft and #Corruption
Joe - stay the course ... like the 'X' or 'tweet' if you agree and read the 'page' ! Small donors unite !
Joe Biden is an effective campaigner and the best at getting things done.
If the Dems try to retool now they will lose anyway.
Of course they have Joe already setup as their scapegoat.
Trump is a 'one trick pony' ... autocrat and will end elections, democracy - period. You should check out On Tyranny by Timothy Synder
I'm ask for money all the time and generally would help across the board.
Ohio, Montana might still get some support even though some of the messaging from those corners is pretty pathetic. From now on 'selectivity' based on who supports Biden is going to be the screen.
Tester and Brown are important to Senate majority but neither state (Montana, Ohio) will change electoral 'totals' - outcomes already determined. Did Schumer give them more money?
Given the issues in this campaign and that most voters are not yet really zooming in yet ... even though they know what they will do ... Biden will win.
Additionally I think it takes his governing ability to follow thru on manufacturing, education and healthcare initiatives ... that is what we stand to lose.
Truman did it!
Joe #Biden for President
Small #Donors support #Biden
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Jounalism 's Role - Don't do ... 'Both-sides-ism is suicide for democracy'
Yale History Professor Timothy Snyder discusses Donald Trump's repeated use of violent and dystopic rhetoric and what can be done by citizens push back against it.
Starving the Watchdog - Hidden Brain - NPR - Dec. 2018
Our individual answer ... act, take an action, e.g., write to the newspaper editor.
#Jounalism 's Role - Don't do ... 'Both-sides-ism is #suicide for #democracy '
Putin and Trump - Democracy and Rule of Law
So many places to begin ...
Putin and the Presidents: Timothy Snyder (interview) | FRONTLINE
The bottom line is 'Putin has taken advantage of failures".
THAT LINE FROM THE 1967 Classic Film - "Cool Hand Luke".
"What we have here, is a failure to communicate."
... or perhaps a failure to understand that our divisions have the same root cause.
Wikipedia --
Timothy David Snyder (born August 18, 1969) is an American historian specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and the Holocaust. He is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.[2][3]
He has written several books, including Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century, The Road to Unfreedom, and Our Malady. Several of them have been described as best-sellers.[4][5]
Snyder serves on the Committee on Conscience of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. He is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
#Putin and #Trump - #Democracy and #RuleOfLaw
Saturday, July 13, 2024
Lawful Deposition - Trump mistakes E. Jean Carroll for ex-wife Marla Maples - YouTube
8/11/2024 - Goes along with being in "helicopter scary moment" with "Willie Brown" who says he has never been in a helicopter with Donald Trump!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Seriously ... you think the woman you "raped" given a photograph is your ex-wife????
Trump Serious Cognitive Problem - how long did he stare?
MARLA MAPLES who?
Lawful Deposition - #Trump mistakes E. Jean #Carroll for ex-wife Marla #Maples - YouTube & Helicopters
Lawful Deposition - #Trump mistakes E. Jean #Carroll for ex-wife Marla #Maples - YouTube #Morality & #Helicopers
Friday, July 12, 2024
@WagnerTonight 'Weak' Story Setup: Michelle Goldberg and David Jolly 7/12/2024
Alex setup the story by "How Democrat had to win 'National Election turnout' by 5% over Republican" to win the Presidency.
She said it used to be less but now population changes have increased it to 5%?
Please explain! I doubt it.
It has also been said that Michigan, Wisconsin, and a few other states electoral results will determine who will become President.
How do we get from a 'National Number like 5%' to infer state electoral results. I suppose "Polling Data," but then how do those numbers get to the 5% number.
Please explain! I can't imagine a robust statistical model? Please explain!
@WagnerTonight 'Weak' Story Setup: Michelle #Goldberg and David #Jolly - #Wagner #President #Biden 7/12/2024
Rep. Himes vs Truman: Approval Ratings are a Time Series - Not Predictors
People always pick their facts to support their argument!
Rep. #Himes vs #Truman: Approval #Ratings are a #TimeSeries #Approval #Disapproval
Rep. #Himes vs #Truman: Approval #Ratings are a #TimeSeries #Approval #Disapproval Truman Won!
The American Presidency Project - All Data
From 538 - about polling
Predicting what public opinion will be four months from now is also difficult. On one hand, that's because small events — like debates — can cause large changes in the polls. But it's also difficult because the polls themselves are noisy. There are many sources of uncertainty that all have to be combined properly, and forecasters make many informed but imperfect choices in figuring out how to do that. (This is true whether you have a mental model or a statistical model, like we do at 538.)
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Billionaires save Social Security ... social equity for your opportunity to make billions
In a recent interview with Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak, labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci highlighted the severe shortcomings of America’s retirement system, particularly the Social Security deficit. Ghilarducci offered a provocative yet insightful calculation: "If Elon Musk paid for Social Security just on his salary for the entire year and some of his capital gains were taxed to fund Social Security — just one person — it would save 1/20 of the deficit in Social Security."
The link has a video !
GOP Mega Donor - YASS Susquehanna Group
Yass has devised trading strategies that reduce his tax burden but push legal boundaries. He has repeatedly drawn IRS audits, yet has continued to test the limits. Susquehanna has often gone to court to fight the government, with one multiyear audit battle ending in a costly defeat. The firm has maintained in court filings that it complied with the law.
Yass’ low rate is particularly notable because Susquehanna, by its own description, specializes in short-term trading. Money made from such rapid trades is typically taxed at rates around 40%.
Ten Ways Billionaires Avoid Taxes on an Epic Scale
More #DarkMoney - Jane #Mayer : The #Koch Brothers #C-SPAN In Depth
#Billionaires save #SocialSecurity ... #socialequity for your opportunity to make billions - #Musk , #Bezos , #Yass , #Ackman , #Singer (Hedgefund), #Zuckerberg , etc
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
All This Yammering: Biden vs Trump - It's really about 'turnout' and 'truth'?
(I've modified the blog entry as of July 28, 2024 to reflect the change to Harris as the Democratic nominee for President ... all changes are in red.)
Trump is not a 'truthful' man. Biden is. And 'truth' implies 'trust' ... easy to believe!
Harris will be the next President in 2024, as easily as Biden, perhaps more so. The reasons remain the same as for Biden compounded by her fresh perspective and renewed supporters.
Yammering defined ...
...to talk continuously for a long time in a way that is annoying to other people...
All this 'yammering' is really about 'fear' by democrats (lower case intentional) that voters won't turnout to vote for Biden and against Trump.
I've looked at a lot of 'facts' to satisfy myself that the 'democrats' will win the next 'Presidential election'.
Anything I say will be disputed by someone ... at length, no matter what.
The #pundits are paid to say 'exciting' things ... so beware, don't believe they have a 'crystal ball'. ... limited bandwidth to deal with #groupthink and #shinyObjects !
The 'Polls' are the most problematic about how confidence may wax and wane. Her performance will jump out but still be an underestimate of overall democratic performance. Pollsters 'sampling methods' are seldom deeply analyzed nor changed when circumstances dictate they should be changed. Harris in the mix not only confounds Trump it confounds 'pollsters'.
WATCH THIS SPACE ... I'll gradually present my 'evolving beliefs/thoughts' that I think are relevant:
- Harvard Youth Poll - Spring 2024.
- 7/2-7/6 national voter study on the 2024 us presidential election opens pdf in new window
- Presidential Lines of Succession
- Who is third on the list of Succession?
- Has Trump seen a 'large' bump since the debate?
- Shall we believe POLLS tell the future. Great Britain? France? The U.S.?
- Why does Nikki Haley get 20% of GOP primary vote?
- Dobb's Happened .... remember ROE V WADE is gone
- Women's March - January 2017
- Trump - Convicted Felon ... rapist ... ***** Grabber
- Trump - Project2025
What do you think?
All This Yammering: #Biden vs #Trump - It's really about ' #turnout ' and ' #truth '?
#Women'sMarch on Washington On January 21, #2017
#Dobb's Happened .... remember ROE V WADE is gone
Why didn't #Trump see a 10% to #20% #debate bump?
Shall we believe #POLLS tell the future. #GreatBritain? #France? The U.S.?
Why does Nikki Haley get 20% of GOP primary vote?
With all respect to Liz Cheney this begins to seem like a previous times ' #AnonymousLeak ', of Dick #Cheney staff leak to the #NYTimes who then as VP increduously says look what the NY Times is reporting. #Pundits stop generalizing quoting #offtherecord
#Pundits stop generalizing and quoting #offtherecord operatives!
7/2-7/6 #national #voter study on the 2024 us #presidential election Politico.com - Amanti -Bendixen
Monday, July 1, 2024
Now that Biden has an 'Imperial Presidency" what can he do?
Share information ...
Biden can affect Justice Department rules ... about trials before elections ... about providing factual information excluded from evidence ... giving it to various Congressional bodies - or putting it into public domain.
The rules can be tailored as an Official Act !
Now that #Biden has an ' #ImperialPresidency" what can he do?
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