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Thursday, March 16, 2017

Counties and Healthcare -- What's the real truth!



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)  ... derived from Census data.
981 counties have a population over 50,000; 
592 counties have a population over 100,000; 
137 counties have a population over 500,000; 
45 counties have a population over 1,000,000; 
and 14 counties have a population over 2,000,000. 
35 counties have a population under 1,000; 
307 counties have a population under 5,000; 
709 counties have a population under 10,000; 
and 1,492 counties have a population between 10,000 and 50,000.[30]
The interesting numbers come at the end.  Did you know that 35 counties have 1000 or fewer people, 307 counties have a population under 5000 and that 709 counties have a population under 10000.

That is over 1000 counties.  I have heard the "1000 county" argument as evidence that ACA is collapsing.  No particulars provided to clarify which 1000 counties out of slightly over 3000.

I have been waiting for "the media" to bring this fact out.  I suspect that it is next to impossible to provide onsite hospitals, doctors, healthcare professionals or even a dentist or chiropractor in those counties let alone an insurance company interested in developing a marketplace.  That does not mean you cannot have healthcare coverage -- just means you are going to have to go a long way to see a provider.

The 1492 counties in the middle are going have fewer options too!

WI 1848 Forward: #Counties and #Healthcare -- What's the real truth about #GOP #Trumpcare #Ryancare vs #ACA

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

This Article Won’t Change Your Mind - The Atlantic


This Article Won’t Change Your Mind - The facts on why facts alone can’t fight false beliefs - The Atlantic JULIE BECK is a senior associate editor at The Atlantic, where she covers health and psychology.

From the article ... I have added emphasis here and there ...

The theory of cognitive dissonance—the extreme discomfort of simultaneously holding two thoughts that are in conflict—was developed by the social psychologist Leon Festinger in the 1950s. In a famous study, Festinger and his colleagues embedded themselves with a doomsday prophet named Dorothy Martin and her cult of followers who believed that spacemen called the Guardians were coming to collect them in flying saucers, to save them from a coming flood. Needless to say, no spacemen (and no flood) ever came, but Martin just kept revising her predictions. Sure, the spacemen didn’t show up today, but they were sure to come tomorrow, and so on. The researchers watched with fascination as the believers kept on believing, despite all the evidence that they were wrong.

“A man with a conviction is a hard man to change,” Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schacter wrote in When Prophecy Fails, their 1957 book about this study. “Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point … Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.” ... 
Seems like the above is the nicest thing you can say about President Donald Trump and his alter ego ... Sean Spicer (what an ironic last name).
This doubling down in the face of conflicting evidence is a way of reducing the discomfort of dissonance, and is part of a set of behaviors known in the psychology literature as “motivated reasoning.” Motivated reasoning is how people convince themselves or remain convinced of what they want to believe—they seek out agreeable information and learn it more easily; and they avoid, ignore, devalue, forget, or argue against information that contradicts their beliefs. ...

Again anyone count how many times President Donald Trump has been described as doubling down! WOW!

The sad truth about President Donald Trump ... or is it a fact ... it is circular ... he believes himself!

What are the manifestations/consequences ...

And in modern America, one of the groups that people have most intensely hitched their identities to is their political party. Americans are more politically polarized than they’ve been in decades, possibly ever. There isn’t public-opinion data going back to the Federalists and the Democratic Republicans, of course. But political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal look at the polarization in Congress. And the most recent data shows that 2015 had the highest rates of polarization since 1879, the earliest year for which there’s data. And that was even before well, you know.

Party Polarization, 1879-2015

See the graph ...

There is more to the article ... a very good read!  After you finish it try this...

NPR: Invisibilia: Flip The Script > Dealing With Hostility, Anger, Confrontation - The Opposite

WI 1848 Forward: This Article Won’t Change Your Mind - The #Atlantic #TheAtlantic #Trump #Facts #Fiction Skepticism

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Sen Tammy Baldwin vs Karl Rove vs OneNationAmerica.org == OneNation

This organization (as of 2/2017) is running cable television commercials (perhaps other markets) targeting Senator Baldwin.  You should know where they are coming from before you accept their message.

From ConservativeTransparency

One Nation is a nonprofit 501(c)4 addition to Karl Rove’s “constellation of Crossroads organizations.” The group “aims to advance well-constructed solutions to our country’s most urgent challenges: its plodding economy, massive debt, job-killing regulations and weakness in an increasingly dangerous world.”
In contrast to Crossroads GPS and American Crossroads, which plan to focus on the presidential race in 2016, One Nation is aimed solely at influencing Senate elections. And it’s wasting no time in getting to work: As of May 2015, One Nation had already purchased $2 million worth of radio, digital and print ads “touting” incumbent Republican senators facing tough reelections in 2016, including Sens. Kelly Ayotte, Mark Kirk, Richard Burr, Rob Portman, and Pat Toomey. The ads praise the senators for supporting trade-promotion authority and urge congressional action “to protect” Medicare and Medicare Advantage.  The spending included $325,000 on ads in New Hampshire in support of Ayotte, and $400,000 in Pennsylvania in support of Toomey. Its ads in Ohio praised Portman for “helping to lead the way” to consensus in Congress.
In October 2015, One Nation launched an ad buy in New Hampshire attempting to defend Sen. Ayotte on women’s health issues. They additionally purchased ads in Missouri defending Sen. Roy Blunt, which were supposedly focused on highlighting Sen. Blunt’s “ability to work across the aisle.”
Sen. Mitch McConnell’s former chief of staff, Steven Law, is the president of One Nation, along with its sister organizations American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS. Law is also executive chairman of the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC “devoted solely to retaining the Senate majority” that “aims to be the go-to destination for major Republican donors interested in Senate races.” Ian Prior is cited as a spokesman for the group; Prior previously served as communications director for Crossroads / Crossroads GPS and, prior to that, as National Press Secretary & Deputy Communications Director for the National Republican Congressional Committee. ...

Open Secrets has more!


Sen Tammy #Baldwin vs Karl #Rove vs #OneNationAmerica.org == #OneNation

Friday, February 3, 2017

TED: Why we need Social Security and Pension Systems - NOT Numerate Pop!

Sort of a British talk but with International perspective!  Today Trump proposed that financial advisers do not have to take their clients interests into account when providing advice.

Considering financial markets let alone numbers are beyond most of us ... that is fraud waiting to happen.  Eliminating Social Security will create hundreds of millions of "suckers".


Think you're good at guessing stats? Guess again. Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited, says data visualization expert Alan Smith. In this delightful talk, Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we think we know.
In general most of us are not good with numbers let alone statistics.  See the Kahneman piece on Thinking, Fast and Slow.  It is another point on why we get things wrong just when it is critical that we get them right.

As an aside one has to wonder why the GOP and its leaders, like Ryan, are always trying to do in Social Security.  It is not bankrupt and projected to be solvent for years to come, and there are so many ways to adjust it without being unfair.  It comes down to the fact that corporations have to pay in a matching amount to your contribution.  Cutting that in any way amounts to big tax cut for businesses and shareholders.  So obvious it is easy to miss.

WI 1848 Forward #TED >Why we need #SocialSecurity and Pension Systems - We are mostly NOT Numerate people! #Kahneman

WI 1848 Forward: The real reason the #GOP , #Ryan wants to cut #SocialSecurity. Corporate #TaxBeak

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Social Infrastructure: Wisconsin Alternative Budget vs Divide and Conquer Walker



WATCH: Citizen Action of Wisconsin Presents Alternative State Budget


WAUSAU, WI (WSAU) -- Citizen Action of Wisconsin has been touring all over Wisconsin and presenting their alternative budget entitled "A Wisconsin Budget for All". Tuesday the group made a stop in Wausau. 
Robert Kraig, Executive Director of Citizen Action of Wisconsin, says they've found a way to improve to large issues in their alternative budget. 
He said, "The idea is to show them if we close some big tax loopholes that go mainly to well-connected corporations and a few wealthy people, that we could make major new investments. So, A Wisconsin Budget for All shows, for example, we could have a free tech college education, we could raise wages for low-income people substantially."
Kraig says the group was very surprised by some of the results of the research they did leading up to presenting the alternative budget. 
"Researchers actually went to coffee shops, bars, and restaurants and talked to people and what we found actually is that people would actually like to spend more on universities, more on schools, more on infrastructure, but they feel like if they send that money to Madison it'll basically be stolen there and go to special interests," Kraig said.
Kraig wants this alternative budget to get people talking.  ...


A Wisconsin Budget for All 
For too long, we’ve all been told that there’s not enough money in the budget to help our communities thrive. That is not true. Actually, there is enough. Making a budget is about making choices. Lawmakers can choose to help private special interests that rig the system, or lawmakers can choose to promote the common good.

Simply cleaning up the tax code by closing two loopholes that the well-connected have created for themselves can restore nearly $900 million to the budget to invest in crucial priorities that your community so desperately needs. After all, that should be what taxes are for. They’re not supposed to be for feathering the nests of those who manipulate the system. They’re supposed to be our joint investments for improving our lives and for bolstering the vitality of all of our communities across Wisconsin.

There are three core areas — work, education, and health — where this restored funding would make a huge difference for hard-working Wisconsin families like yours and for the life of your community.

Read the full proposal, “A Wisconsin Budget for All” and learn how we can push for a budget that will help all our communities thrive.
  • Supporters of A Wisconsin Budget for All: 9to5 Wisconsin • Citizen Action of Wisconsin • Coalition of Wisconsin Aging Groups • Community Advocates Public Policy Institute • League of Women Voters of Wisconsin • Lutheran Office for Public Policy in Wisconsin • Madison-Area Urban Ministry • National Association of Social Workers, WI Chapter •  SEIU Wisconsin State Council • Wisconsin Alliance for Women’s Health • Wisconsin Council of Churches • Wisconsin Council on Children and Families • Wisconsin Democracy Campaign • Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC) • Wisconsin Faith Voices for Justice • Wisconsin Federation of Nurses and Health Professionals • Wisconsin Friends Action Network • WISDOM

WI 1848 Forward: #SocialInfrastructure : #Wisconsin > Responsible-Alternative #Budget vs #Divide&Conquer #Walker 

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Atlantic : The Quiet GOP Campaign Against Government Regulation



2 mins

Perhaps we should end regulation altogether ... seems to be GOP and Republican strategy. Seems consistent with Paul Ryan's love of Ayn Rand.  http://wi1848forward.blogspot.com/…/video-what-does-paulrya…


The House passed two laws that would profoundly change how federal rules are issued—and that hardly any non-lawyer knows about.
THEATLANTIC.COM|BY PETER M. SHANE


Paul Ryan reminds me of the demolition experts that claimed they could blow up the first floor without damaging the building and then were shocked when the building collapsed.  "OH! Look ACA, etc., is failing!"  Wonder why!

WI 1848 Forward: #Atlantic : The Quiet #GOP Campaign Against Government #Regulation ... twisted use of Cost/Benefit

WI 1848 Forward: #Atlantic : The Quiet #GOP Campaign Against Government #Regulation ... did an #ExecutiveOrder do it http://wi1848forward.blogspot.com/2017/01/atlantic-quiet-gop-campaign-against.html?spref=tw

Sunday, January 22, 2017

AP - How Trump's executive order impacts future of ACA - 'Obamacare' - no replacement in sight

Death By A 1000 Administrative Cuts:

Trump will later say ... it was just bad ... I didn't do anything ... it just failed on its own.

Jan. 21, 2017 2:48 PM ET How Trump's executive order impacts future of 'Obamacare' By JULIE PACE and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR, Associated Press



 (AP) — President Donald Trump's first executive order targets the sweeping "Obamacare" law by giving federal agencies broad leeway to chip away at the measure. But Trump still needs Congress to do away with the law for good.
Trump signed the executive order in the Oval Office Friday, hours after being sworn in as the 45th president of the United States.
 
The one-page directive gives agencies authority to grant waivers, exemptions and delays of provisions in the Affordable Care Act. But until it becomes clear what steps federal agencies take as a result, its full impact on Americans and their health insurance is uncertain.

JAN 21, 2017 AT 10:56 AM Trump’s Executive Order On Obamacare Means Everything And Does Nothing By Anna Maria Barry-Jester Filed under The Trump Administration 


There are other important signals in the short executive order. It says HHS should “encourage the development of a free and open market in interstate commerce” and “provide greater flexibility to States,” suggesting that Trump will push HHS to grant more flexibility to states in how they implement the law.
It was no secret before Trump signed the executive order that he wanted the Affordable Care Act repealed, and all of these changes were possible before it was signed. But now Trump has made his intentions clear, with one of his first acts as president: The Department of Health and Human Services, “to the maximum extent permitted by law,” should get to dismantling.

The strategy seems to be to destroy the "healthcare marketplace" ... how ironic for the GOP ... so much for their core values.

In the arguments being made (3/15/2017) giving people "choice" is going to make "health insurance" affordable and accessible.  Somehow doctors and other healthcare workers are going to be paid less and hospital stays are going to become less expensive so insurance costs will fall.  It is implicit that the "marketplace" will be transformed, perform more efficiently, etc.  How?

There are things that can be done to advance the goals of "affordable and accessible" -- choice is not one!

Consumer Reports: House Pulls GOP Health Insurance Bill, but Some Changes Already Are Underway Doing what it can, the Trump administration has started watering down the Affordable Care Act - Donna Rosato Last updated: March 24, 2017

... The changes could result in sharply higher premiums and less coverage for many. For example, Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price has said he wants to water down regulations requiring insurers to offer comprehensive coverage in 10 areas, including maternity care, prescription drugs and mental health services.
Consumers already are worried they could be priced out of the market. In a recent nationally representative CR Consumer Voices Survey, 55 percent said they’re not sure they or their loved ones could afford insurance to get quality healthcare. ...
...The mandate requires most people to buy insurance or pay a penalty to the IRS ($695 per adult and $347.50 per child under 18 but no more than 2.5 percent of your gross income). In February, the IRS followed Trump’s order when it announced it would no longer automatically reject the tax return of someone who didn’t check the box confirming health coverage or fill out the form to pay a penalty. People who don’t have insurance still owe the penalty— but the IRS isn’t going to hold up your return if you don’t provide the information.
Another executive action took aim at the ACA’s most recent open-enrollment period. Just five days before the January 31 signup deadline, the Trump administration directed Health and Human Services to halt TV ads encouraging people to sign up and ended other outreach efforts.  ...
WI 1848 Forward: #TrumpCare #RyanCare  Still Plan to Gut #ACA and blame it on #Obama  http://wi1848forward.blogspot.com/2017/01/ap-how-trumps-executive-order-impacts.html?spref=tw

#AP -How #Trump 's #PresidentPriebus executive order impacts future of #ACA ' #Obamacare ' - no replacement in sight http://wi1848forward.blogspot.com/2017/01/ap-how-trumps-executive-order-impacts.html?spref=tw

WI 1848 Forward: #PresidentPriebus ExecutiveOrder-  #Obamacare Means Everything And Does Nothing - #ACA to be gutted http://wi1848forward.blogspot.com/2017/01/ap-how-trumps-executive-order-impacts.html?spref=tw