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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Walker Spin: State of the State (1/25/12) - Topic: Unemployment (w/video)

Walker: State of the State - Topic: Unemployment

Walker said ...
When I addressed you in this chamber last January, Wisconsin had suffered through three years of 150,000 of our fellow citizens losing their jobs. The unemployment rate was 7.5%. (min 11)
20 minute intro ...


Be cautious, we really cannot be sure what he is saying. There are only forecasts for January 2012. So what has changed? Public data reports (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) are available to everyone. So, again. what has changed?

Professor Bruce E. Hansen has a report out that we can look at Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecast.  It appears from public data and that of Professor Hansen that the only reasonable number to compare then and now is the January 2011 number and the November, 2011 (7.3%). I guess the bottom line is that nothing has changed! It is hard to imagine that 7.5 vs 7.3 is more than noise. Compound that number with those seeking jobs and those in/out of the job market for various reasons.

Professor Hansen writes ...
The unemployment rate in November 2011 was 7.3%, a major one-month fall, after holding roughly steady for 4 months and increasing in the first half of the year, following a steady fall during 2010.
So 2010 saw major improvement in unemployment rate (Doyle Administration) and 2011 saw no significant improvement but Walker's remarks go on ...
Now, our unemployment rate is down from a year ago. In fact, it's the lowest it's been since 2008.


We are turning things around. We are heading in the right direction.


During the past year, we added thousands of new jobs.
This kind of spin is beyond egregious!

Sources


Bruce E. Hansen,T. Haavelmo Professor, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, 22 December 2011, Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecast - http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/forecast/

________________________________________
I left the following comment on WI PBS "Here and Now" ....


I watched the program (mostly) and did appreciate the topics.  Governor Walker has made employment/development/unemployment key agenda items.  But all governors seem to do that!

Usually it is more a pretext for other policy items, like roll back environmental protection or positioning for what will happen anyway (economic recovery - so far down anything looks up).

The State of the State perpetuated the Governor's "jobs" spin and your program could have been a little more clear (hard) on the issue ... but thanks.

I might have asked this question the way I phrased on my blog ...

"So 2010 saw major improvement in unemployment rate (Doyle Administration) and 2011 saw no significant improvement but ..." 


WI 1848 Forward: : State of the State (1/25/12) - Topic: (w/video) : The Gov :vs #47%

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