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Monday, March 7, 2011

Why Vote - Redux! Let Unions elect the way Walker was!

Governor Walker proposed that unions would need to be re-certified every year by 51% of the membership. Sounds like a good idea! Until 51% of the VAP (Voting Age Population) votes in an election we can do without a Governor. Since Governor Walker only got 26% of the VAP he should resign!

Wisconsin Voter Turnout 11/2010      49.56%    2,160,832    VAP   4,330,695 (Source: Wi GAB)
Wisconsin Voter Turnout 11/2008      69.20%    2,996,869    VAP  ~4,370,000 (Source: Wi GAB)

Approximate Difference in     ~20%          836,000  
(Subtract Falloff ~ matches population growth)

Assume 2008 as Actual Voter Base for Major Parties
(allows imputation of voting falloff by party from 2008 to 2010)

        Total Falloff                  -806360

        Walker Votes 2010            1,128,941
        McCain Votes 2008            1,262,393    (Wikipedia)
        Falloff               11%         -133,452

        Barrett Votes 2010            1,004,303    (Wikipedia)
        Obama Votes 2008            1,677,211
        Falloff               40%         -672,908

Walker's 2010 Win - Voter Margin              124,638  

In summary, Governor Walker was elected by a very, very slim margin of 124,638 votes, less than 5.8% of the votes cast. Governor Walker was elected by only  ~26% of the Voting age population of Wisconsin.

This assumes that voter preference was not wildly different from 2010 than it was in 2008.  If Barrett had a Falloff of just 11% he easily would have been Governor by a margin of ~363,177 votes

VAP - Voting Age Population
GAB - Governmental Accountabily Board
WI 1848 Forward:Why #Vote - Redux! Let #Unions elect the way #Walker was! : #wiUnion #wiVote #47% #99% vs #1% #elites

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