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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

01/2013 v2 250,000: When an employment promise is NOT a promise!

When I first blogged the stories below I was just thinking Walker was going to get lucky on job creation as we recovered from a recession.  A prediction below claims 30,000 jobs for 2011 (if it happened he does not deserve the credit).  Claims of 59,000 for 2012 now look more like less than 10,000 for 2012.  So 39,000 jobs versus 89,000 projected.  How did he manage that ... and that is just private sector jobs.

Wisconsin Job Growth Only Half Of National Average - WPR (see audio at link)

Preliminary numbers from the Department of Workforce Development show the state added just 9,700 private sector jobs in all of 2012.
The numbers come from a total of all the seasonally adjusted employer surveys in 2012. The latest survey showed the state adding 4,500 private sector jobs in December. But overall last year, seven months of private sector job gains were tempered by five months of job losses. Labor Economist Laura Dresser with the Center on Wisconsin Strategies says it was a weak year. “Just under 10,000 jobs over the course of a year is ... this is a labor market of 2.7 million jobs. There are 200,000 people who report right now that are looking for work. To add 10,000 jobs to that is really the tiniest little drop in the bucket.” ....
I originally submitted this to the Wisconsin State Journal's Opinion Page 12/22/2010 - it was edited (see link) and published about a week later.  Last night Governor Walker again repeated his promise to create 250,000 jobs during his Budget Introduction to the Legislature!  How can I say it briefly ... it will happen but not because of his policies.  How many jobs is he going to destroy first?


Scott Walker promised to create 250000 jobs for Wisconsinites as Governor during the next four years, 2011-2014, (e.g., see Scott Bauer, AP). He must have been peeking at Wisconsin DOR reports before they were even written - see ) Wisconsin Economic Outlook, December, 21st 2010.

From that source news release …

Wisconsin added almost 30,000 jobs through September 2010, nearly 10,000 more than expected for the year. The Wisconsin economy is expected to add 26,000 jobs in 2011, and [an]other 59,000 jobs in 2012. Job growth will return to pre-recession levels in 2013 with Wisconsin adding 54,000 jobs that year.

If the DOR is right then Scott Walker will not have to do a thing to see 193000 jobs added during his term. This seems to imply he really only needs to add 53000 more jobs or about 14000 each year beyond what may happen naturally.

But not all jobs are equal and not all promises are what they appear to be!

Update: 3/4/2011 DOR Pub. Wisconsin Economic Outlook - Winter 

"During the past year, Wisconsin recovered 32,600 jobs from December 2009 through December 2010. ... The unemployment rate in Wisconsin stayed below the national rate through the recent recession and will continue doing so.  The unemployment rate should fall to 7.3% in 2011 and 6.7% in 2012."  Given what Governor Walker is doing to Education in his proposed budget ... this may be rather optimistic.

WI 1848 Forward: 01/2013 v2 250,000: When an #Walker #employment promise is NOT a promise! #Jobs #dems #Barca #47%

WI 1848 Forward: 01/2013 v2 250,000: When an #Walker #employment promise is NOT a promise! vs #Jobs 39,000

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