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Monday, February 28, 2011

Why Vote !? Governor 4-YR Election Cycle Non-Presidential

In early February, 2011 as Governor Walker proclaimed his Budget Repair Bill was being put forward as a mandate from the people of Wisconsin I began to wonder just how big his mandate was!  So I did a little digging to get some facts from sources that seem reliable!  The result is the attached 'WHY VOTE' page!

Why Vote!?

Governor Walker was elected by only  ~26% of the Voting age population of Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin Voter Turnout 11/2010      49.56%    2,160,832    VAP   4,330,695 (Source: Wi GAB)
Wisconsin Voter Turnout 11/2008      69.20%    2,996,869    VAP  ~4,370,000 (Source: Wi GAB)

Approximate Difference in     ~20%          836,000  
(Subtract Falloff ~ matches population growth)

Assume 2008 as Actual Voter Base for Major Parties
(allows imputation of voting falloff by party from 2008 to 2010)

        Total Falloff                  -806360

        Walker Votes 2010            1,128,941
        McCain Votes 2008            1,262,393    (Wikipedia)
        Falloff               11%         -133,452

        Barrett Votes 2010            1,004,303    (Wikipedia)
        Obama Votes 2008            1,677,211
        Falloff               40%         -672,908

Walker's 2010 Win - Voter Margin              124,638  

In summary, Governor Walker was elected by a very, very slim margin of 124,638 votes,less than 5.8% of the votes cast. Governor Walker was elected by only  ~26% of the Voting age population of Wisconsin.

This assumes that voter preference was not wildly different from 2010 than it was in 2008.  If Barrett had a Falloff of just 11% he easily would have been Governor by a margin of ~363,177 votes

VAP - Voting Age Population
GAB - Governmental Accountabily Board

WI 1848 Forward: Why #Vote !? #Governor 4-YR #Election Cycle Non-Presidential - #walker #47% #99% #wiunion #voterID